TORONTO and MONTRÉAL – April 16, 2026 – FP Canada and the Institute of Financial Planning today announce the joint release of the 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines and Addendum for professional financial planners across Canada.
The Projection Assumption Guidelines help financial planners make long-term projections that are free from bias for their clients. The Guidelines are established using a variety of trusted and publicly available external data sources, as well as results from a targeted survey.
Designed to look beyond the current day rate environment, the Guidelines are intended to be used when making long-term projections of 10 years or more. For shorter-term financial projections (less than 10 years), financial planners may use actual rates of return on fixed-term investments held to maturity and dividend yields on equities.
When applying the Guidelines to client situations, professional financial planners must always use their professional judgement and should document and clearly communicate the assumptions used for their clients. In times when markets or economic conditions are changing, it is particularly important to note the long-term nature of these projections.
The Projection Assumption Guidelines for 2026 are as follows:
| a. Inflation rate | 2.1% |
| b. Inflation Linked Assumptions | |
| a. YMPE or MPE growth rate | 3.1% (inflation + 1%) |
| b. Shelter Projection Considerations | 3.1% (inflation + 1%) |
| c. Return rates (nominal) | |
Short-term | 2.4% |
| Fixed income | 3.2% |
| Canadian equities | 6.3% |
| U.S. equities | 6.4% |
International developed-market equities | 6.6% |
| Emerging market equities | 7.5% |
| d. Borrowing rate | 4.4% |
New Considerations for 2026
While guidelines are not provided for commercial real estate or investment properties, the 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines include a new assumption for Shelter Projection Considerations (primary residence appreciation and primary residence rents), supported by data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and global research.
“Because housing costs—whether related to home ownership or renting—represent a significant and persistent component of a household’s financial picture, the Committee believed it was important to offer planners clear guidance in this area. Establishing long‑term housing assumptions within a principled framework supports more consistent and defensible financial projections,” says Nick Hearne, CFP® CFA and Chair of the Projection Assumption Guidelines Committee.
The 2026 Guidelines note that, when making assumptions about real estate growth, it is important to consider an appropriate starting valuation for the asset property in question, and to use an inflation-based assumption that is suitable based on the local market context.
The Mortality and Probability of Survival Tables included in the Guidelines have, with the 2026 publication, been updated to include assumptions for same-sex couples in addition to individuals and heterosexual couples. This change improves the accuracy and inclusiveness of joint-life longevity estimates by reflecting the different survival patterns that arise when both members of a couple share the same sex-based mortality characteristics.
Finally, the 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines include new commentary and guidance to support planners in interpreting short-term inflation conditions when developing financial planning scenarios. “Short‑term deviations can have a meaningful impact on fixed‑horizon planning—such as budgeting, saving for a home, paying down debt, making major purchases, or other near‑term goals. As a result, planners may need to take the current inflation environment into account when providing advice or preparing a fixed‑horizon plan,” says Julie Seberras, CFP®, MBA, FCSI and Chair of the FP Canada Standard Council™ Standards Panel.
The Projection Assumption Guidelines are accompanied by an Addendum containing the data sources on which they are based. The Addendum offers financial planners an opportunity to fully understand and replicate the recommended calculations. It also includes a correlation matrix demonstrating the relationship of return patterns between asset classes.
The Projection Assumption Guidelines Committee is composed of individuals who are both professional financial planners (either Certified Financial Planner® professionals or F.Pl. designation holders in Québec) and either actuaries or Chartered Financial Analyst charterholders. The Standards Panel is an independent panel composed of CFP professionals, at least one licensed financial planner from Québec, and a member of the public. The Panel’s mandate includes oversight of the Projection Assumptions Guidelines Committee, which develops and maintains the Guidelines and Addendum.
You can find the 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines, and the Addendum on the FP Canada website.
About FP Canada
Established in 1995, FP Canada is a national not-for-profit education, certification and professional oversight organization working in the public interest. FP Canada is dedicated to championing better financial wellness for all Canadians by leading the advancement of professional financial planning in Canada.
About the Institute of Financial Planning
As a leader in developing and promoting personal financial planning, the Institute of Financial Planning's mission is to ensure that today’s and tomorrow’s financial services professionals have the knowledge, the know-how and the social skills required to contribute to the financial well-being of people, families, and communities. The Institute of Financial Planning, previously known as the Institut québécois de planification financière, updated its brand identity in 2023, in keeping with its new mission and vision. For more information, visit Institutpf.org.
Contacts for media inquiries
Megan Harman
FP Canada
megan.harman@fpcanada.ca
Liette Pitre
Institute of Financial Planning
liette.pitre@institutpf.org
